In Punjab, people have solid data on livestock populations. In other provinces it is not. The reason is that the Punjab government released its 2016 livestock survey results in 2017-18 based on physical surveys. The other three provinces have not yet followed suit. Therefore, the author of the Pakistan Economic Survey can not report the actual livestock count at the national level. They make annual estimates based on the growth rate of animal populations recorded in the 2006 census for the 1996 census.
Last livestock survey was conducted across Pak in 2006
But this was a sample survey. Using older census growth rates to estimate livestock populations darkens policymakers. In addition, it is difficult to assess the impact of the slaughter of all cows, calves, bulls, buffaloes, goats, sheep and camels on Baqra Eid on the national population. The Pakistan Tanners Association (PTA) releases the skins and number of hides of sacrificial animals every year after the three-day religious event. Conducting animal census across Pakistan and realistically evaluating large-scale sales of sacrificial animals at Baqra Eid is important for food security.
Tanneries are supplied through a network of merchants and agents, seminaries, NGOs, political parties and social groups involved in the mass sacrifice of animals. The PTA number acts as a surrogate for the number of animals sacrificed. However, defect collection systems, inaccurate reporting, and deliberate underreporting systems reduce the reliability of PTA numbers. Also, this number appears small when applying different proxies.
These proxies include the number of sacrificial animals sold in major markets, additional money transfers prior to Baqra Eid, and sales reported by online animal sellers. Therefore, in addition to assessing the size of the Baqra Eid economy, it is necessary to obtain actual data on the sale of sacrificial animals in order to collect the corresponding tax. This is a complex task and cannot be implemented without effective coordination between federal, state and local governments and related departments and agencies.
Obtaining a realistic estimate of the size of the Baqra Eid economy is important for future forecasts that provide more information about consumption, money movements, and the informal economy. Until we get national animal census results, more stable sales estimates of sacrificial animals will help us understand the impact of Baqra Eid on livestock economy.
Since last year's Baqra Eid, tanneries reported that the hides and hides of sacrificial animals reached up to 10 million cases. This includes 5m goat and sheep skin, 3m cow, calf, bull and buffalo skin, and about 100,000 camel skins. According to federal estimates, a total of 90 meters of leather and leather were collected last year.
This means that Baqra Eid specific slaughter of sacrificial animals accounts for about 9pc of everyday slaughter per year. Even if you overlook the flaw in data collection and reporting, this is a large number. The country's economy is under stress, unemployment is high, and income levels are lower than a year ago. Inflation is skyrocketing.
Sales of sacrificial animals
Therefore, sales of sacrificial animals this year can not be expected to exceed last year's levels. But even if the country slaughters the same number of animals this year (8.01 m), it will make up the same rate (9pc) throughout the year to slaughter animals for meat supply and export. Shouldn't the economy of the event, which accounts for 9pc of total slaughter in one country, be properly recorded. Federal statistics show an increasing population of cattle, buffalo, goats and sheep. However, applying inter-census growth rates to estimate livestock populations can sometimes be misleading.
For example, the population of livestock, buffalo, goats and sheep, estimated by this formula, increased significantly in 2010-11. Relevant officials did not consider the direct and indirect effects of the August and September 2010 Super Flood on livestock. When Punjab began the livestock survey in 2016, initial results showed that actual local livestock was much less than the federal government had previously reported. The culprit was to use the growth rate between the census.
Conducting animal census throughout Pakistan and making a realistic assessment of the large sale of sacrificial animals at Baqra Eid is also important for food security and efficient crop management. Livestock raising of local feed crops can take up extra land for imported replacement crops. Policy makers do not know Pakistan's actual livestock population, so they cannot make the right decision about the amount of land sufficient to grow feed crops.
Likewise, without reliable data on the sale of sacrificial animals, it is impossible to realistically predict the specific needs for feed in many cities and towns during the Baqra Eid period. As a result, animal food prices rise and supplies remain erratic.
The animals market prices on this Eid al-Adha
As the market for sacrificial animals shrinks and prices fall to this Eid al-Adha, the pain of economic slowdown in rural households is growing. Many traders desperately decided to return to the market early with unsold stocks, without waiting for buyers until Eid's third day to prevent losses. Traditionally, farmers raise most goat or calf animals and sell them at the city's premium as Eid al-Adha, raising funds for purposes that are not covered by everyday income.
Money from selling cows makes Eid sweeter in rural Pakistan. Treated as an annual bonus. In addition to providing some indulgence for the family, money is often used to replace agricultural tools, repair homes or invest in assets. Small farmers can also use their money to dispose of their debts. ”Adil Gujjar, Multan's commercial farm manager, told us by phone. Market watchers expect a 40-50% decline in total livestock trading this year.
The average price of goats, calves, cows or sheep is 10-15pc lower than last year, chewing margin in small quantities. The Federal Internal Revenue Service (FBR) has blocked the livestock market to date. Recent reports on taxes on the sale and purchase of sacrificial animals are incorrect. FBR Chairman Shabbar Zaidi told us the sale and purchase of cattle for Eid was exempt.
But a high-ranking official of the FBR personally told us that a proposal for this effect was recently discussed. "Because you are not sure which tax range your livestock trades, you should contact your sales tax representative at FBR. The shrinking Eid market strengthens awareness of the growing financial stress of the average Pakistani family as the economy slows under the PTI government's oversight.
I sacrificed goats every year
I switched to a group qurbani last year with 7 participants equally distributing cow costs evenly for cheap reasons. God knows that we can't afford it anymore this year, so we have to give up qurbani, ”said Amir, a young expert with two children who go to school. Businessmen with rural links have also expressed concern. They anticipate a sharp decline in cattle populations, driving a series of reactions that do not fit well into the future of the field.
Even if the livestock sector is performing poorly, the livestock sector remains healthy. According to the 2018-19 Pakistan Economic Survey, livestock, which increased to 58.9pc and 11.1pc in 2017-18, is growing to 60.5pc in agriculture and 11.2pc in GDP. In 2018-19, it increased to 4pc compared to 3.8pc compared with the previous year. Having a healthy animal is not easy. Cows, like children, need constant care and attention.
If you keep punishing on the market, farmers will stop breeding. The agricultural community is neglected. It is at the end for any reason. If the farming community trims the time and resources devoted to cattle after the extinction of the community this year, it will be fully understandable. Next year, shortages and vertical price increases are expected in Eid's livestock market, ”said Saqib Butt, owner of a food company and supermarket chain.
Another businessman worried about Sardar Rafiq Khan of Bukhari cattle and dairy. "sad. I know a lot of people who brought their livestock to farms from Mandy around the country. This is a major impediment to the rural economy that can draw emotions from the Broods community. He urged the government to provide assistance to farmers before the situation worsened, and began to erode the already-stressed agricultural base.
Livestock cash transactions for Eid
Livestock cash transactions for Eid make it difficult to measure the flow of funds. In addition, there is a stakeholder chain that conducts activities throughout the year and has a peak in Eid. There are companies, short-term investors, livestock farmers, brokers, transporters and mehndi operators, and a number of service providers and temporary workers. It is difficult to estimate the share of each sector in the Eidul Azha economy.
In this trade, risk is high and revenue is uncertain. Several indicators are released after one month to help assess the market size, such as the number of leathers and skins collected, the combined figures of the arrival of animals in government-controlled markets. At this point, we know that, according to the Pakistan State Bank (SBP), the funds sent by overseas Pakistan recorded $ 22.4 billion, up 24pc in July from $ 16.5 billion a year-on-year.
The SBP issued fresh banknotes of various names at 288 billion rupees (Rs) as the cash demand for Eid increased. According to initial estimates, the size of the Baqra Eid economy, dominated by the trade in sacrificial animals, has fallen from around 260 billion rupees in 2018 to 200 billion rupees. Without reliable data, the calculation is based on intelligent guessing. Eid's conquered market is based on the latest reports on improving consumer confidence.
According to the SBP
The consumer confidence in Pakistan increased from 43.1 in May to 43.3 in July. The index covers household awareness and expectations for the next semester over the last six months. Based on a layered randomized telephone survey of 1,600 households across Pakistan. Analysts said, “The gap between market and research outlook reveals a lack of relevance in providing reliable insight into the weaknesses and consumer behavior of this movement.
Another businessman added, “In many cities, including Karachi, the largest livestock market, abnormal rains and lack of adequate drainage have exacerbated the situation for livestock traders, increasing their risk due to low steps and improper placement of customers. Despite the relatively limited involvement of short-term investors.
The overall business dynamics did not change significantly this year. One young banker said, “The young, urban, professional level said the market was expected to be high risk, low yield, or left the market without financial resources due to financial pressure. Phenomenon without relevant data.